Tanulmány
Summary: The referendum, which was held on 23rd June 2016 about the membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union, caused political and economic uncertainty in the country and had negative impacts on the further development of integration process. However, the conservative government led by Theresa May is interested in striking a compromise on the EU’s withdrawal agreement, the main problem is that hard-liner MP’s of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from Northern Ireland and the majority of tory representatives rejected the withdrawal agreement, which was signed between the United Kingdom and the European Union at the end of November 2018. The objective of my essay is to analyse the possible macroeconomic impacts of Brexit on Great-Britain and the countries of East Central Europe. Besides the evaluation of different scenarios related to Brexit, it is a crucial issue to answer which consequences might have the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on the economies of the Eurozone and the Central and Eastern European countries. As far as the trade of goods and services is concerned, exports to the UK from CEECs is negligible in terms of their GDP, but a ‘hard Brexit’ would have negative impacts on trade linkages. Because of close relationship with the Eurozone countries, one of the main problems would be the slowdown of the Euro area, which would have negative consequences on the economic outlook of the region as a whole. Because of length constraints, I will not highlight the content of the UK’s withdrawal agreement and the evaluation of British domestic politics.
Kulcsszavak: makrogazdaság, Brexit és lehetséges forgatókönyvei, Egyesült Királyság és az EU, gazdasági és kereskedelmi hatások Közép- és Kelet-Európában
Keywords: macroeconomy, Brexit and its possible scenarios, United Kingdom and the EU, economic and trade impacts on East Central Europe
JEL kód: E00
Summary: Among the geopolitical challenges facing Europe – as has been the case in history – is now one of the most important threats facing Russia. Russia is increasingly aware of the use of hybrid warfare tools in Europe as well as of traditional military actions: annexation of Crimea, its military aircrafts regularly violate the airspace of European countries, launched military operations in Syria seriously violating of European interests. Due to the significant Russian army and nuclear weapon arsenal, direct military conflict is not a real alternative to act against aggressive geopolitical activity of Russia, so European countries have to act in a different way against hostile Russian actions. Beside intelligence (secret services) and IT protection, the tools of economic warfare should also be considered. As a result of annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, several economic sanctions have been imposed on Russia since 2014, but other economic warfare instruments may also be considered. In my research, I investigated whether the artificial influence of oil prices could be an effective economic warfare tool against Russia's actions violating European interests. Analysing oil market data and military spending database linear regression relationship can be discerned between the price of crude oil and the evolution of military spending of Russia. So, the average negative effect on Russian military spending of 1% fall in oil prices can be quantified. According to my research results, European countries alone do not have sufficient economic potential to induce a sustainable and significant price drop on the world oil market, nevertheless in alliance with its allies – first of all the United States – it can/could be an effective geoeconomic tool against hostile Russian geopolitical steps.
Kulcsszavak: geoökonómia, geopolitika, katonai kiadások, kőolajpiac
Keywords: geoökonómia, geopolitika, katonai kiadások, kőolajpiac
JEL kód: F51
Summary: The role of the endogenous resources has been emphasized since a long time by the literature of territorial and rural development. In parallel the role of agriculture in local employment has decreased significantly for the last few decades. The Institute for Regional Economics and Rural Development (IRERD) of the Szent István University Gödöllő regularly makes researches in traditionally farming rural areas to analyze the possible role of agriculture and food products besides such tendencies in local development strategies. The paper focuses on the territorial effects of Göncz apricot Pálinka as Hungaricum product (being under protection of origin registered in the Hungarian Repository of Values). After secondary data collection, in-depth interviews with people who took part in the production and management of the examined Hungaricum, tourism providers and the most important actors of local rural development were conducted in the spring of 2014. The research proved that the production of Göncz Palinka has made several direct and indirect benefits for the economy and society of the examined micro region. It has contributed among other things to the local job generation and preservation, stimulation of catering and tourism, growth of income of producers of raw materials and distilleries and so to the increase of local tax revenues. In addition, the premium-quality product has provided diversification opportunities for local farmers. However the research has highlighted that this endogenous resource should be even deeper exploited in the future. To achieve this aim further national and local interventions and subsidies would be necessary.
Kulcsszavak: endogén erőforrás, helyi gazdaságfejlesztés, mezőgazdaság, vidékfejlesztés
Keywords: agriculture, endogenous resources, local economic development, rural development
JEL kód: A19, Q19, R59
Summary: On 25, December, 1991 the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The resignation of the president, Mihail Gorbacsov meant the end of the eastern-western conflicts and the bipolar world, and it also meant the beginning of the significant changes in the international relations. In historical sense for a while there was the only one super power, the USA remaining alone in the political battlefield. In a decade the outline of the multipolar and interdependence international system began to crystallize. The signification of the Eurasian Heartland also began to develop. Russia emerged as the representative of neoeurasianism in order to restore. China as a new super power also started to expand and extend its influence on the world. The European Union with its inner conflicts tries to keep its fragile power position. Parallel with the above mentioned changes in the system of the international relations the influential role of civilizations, identities and new economical-political integrations have increased. All these factors and processes have shaped new spatial structures and have significant influence on the geopolitical thinking that rejects the one-poled (Atlantic) idea of globalization and have an effect on the field and role of the Eastern and Central Europe in the international relations. This research paper aims at summarizing and synthetizing the outlined factors.
Kulcsszavak: több pólusú nemzetközi rend, globalizáció, neoeurázsianizmus, Egyesült Államok Oroszország, Kína, Új Selyemút
Keywords: multipolar international system, globalization, neoeurasianism, USA, Russia, China, new silk road
JEL kód: F50
Summary: The European Union’s agriculture, aquaculture, forestry and food industry sees significant internal disparities in terms of research and innovation performance to the disadvantage of the CEE countries. This divide hinders the unlocking of excellence in low-performing research, development and innovation regions and the establishment of transnational cooperation for knowledge-based development, thus the appearance of specific research topics relevant to the CEE macro-region. To bridge the gap the specific challenges in the sector should be faced through the lens of bioeconomy (circular economy). At the same time there is no doubt that bioeconomy requires accompanying strategies and shared strategic research and innovation framework. The paper is aimed at providing a brief theoretical background on bioeconomy and related bioeconomy strategies and policies and analysing key socio-economic indicators of the ‘BIOEAST countries’ bioeconomy. Furthermore, it interprets the results of the ‘BIOEAST Bioeconomy Capacity Building Survey’, the respondents of which were chosen randomly through personal contacts of experts (who created a judgement sample) and by snowball sampling to get further contacts. The questionnaire was sent to a small subset of the target groups – business, academic, public sector stakeholders - and the answers were examined through descriptive and inferential statistical analysis. The focus was set on what stakeholders think the most beneficial for the CEE macro region in developing the bioeconomy and what type of intervention they identify as necessary to overcome barriers, to manage bottlenecks. The results highlight some implications for policymakers and point out that the creation of sustainable bioeconomy requires triple-helix stakeholders to find efficient collaboration mechanisms and build synergies.
Kulcsszavak: biomassza alapú gazdaság, körkörös gazdaság, fenntarthatóság, kutatás és innováció
Keywords: bioeconomy, circular economy, sustainability, research and innovation
JEL kód: O13, O3, Q16, Q58